Preview: Sorana Cirstea vs Mayo Hibi - 28.08.15

US Open - Qualifying

Sorana Cirstea x Mayo Hibi

28th of August of 2015

You might consider a bit strange betting only in one girl out of a lot of players during this qualifying stage. However, there is a lack of information about many players and some matches are so unpredictable it is hard to take a position. So, this match will put face to face Sorana Cirstea from Romania, against Mayo Hibi from Japan. I have talked a lot about the Romanian last couple of days, while Mayo should be considered a player like the one Cirstea took in the first round: still very limited, beats who are weaker, loses to who are better.

As I said for some times, Cirstea is showing very good vibes, working hard to get in shape and comeback to her real level. She is holding her serve without many problems, with good stats in the last two matches here in the US Open, and that win against Vekic should give her some extra confidence. Mayo Hibi is an unknown player for me, but from her results we can make some conclusions: she only played one WTA tournament this level, Indian Wells, losing to Tsurenko with no chances at all, playing the entire year at an ITF level. She is still trying to reach top175, so she is one more average player, still young, but older enough to say she is not one next top10 player.

This match looks pretty similar to the first round of Cirstea in this qualifying stage. She is facing a unknown player but from a standard level, and the main event is in the next door, it is no time for rest. I am sure Cirstea will enter this match focused in winning and I think we may see a win in straight sets. Cirstea was able to beat Vekic in last round so here she is more confident to face an easier opponent.

Pick: Sorana Cirstea @ 1.53 Pinnacle Sports (2/3)

Preview: Sorana Cirstea vs Donna Vekic - 27.08.15

US Open - Qualifying

Sorana Cirstea x Donna Vekic

27th of August of 2015

This match may be the one with more talent from the qualifying stage of this US Open. Two young ladies in bad runs, but with weapons to be dangerous even to top10 players. We will have face to face Sorana Cirstea from Romania, against Donna Vekic from Croatia. As I said, while Cirstea is in a bad run because of "natural" stuff, Vekic is in the middle of a "novel" with heavy consequences to Nick Kyrgios, but Vekic suffered and is suffering a lot with that. So, it is time to be with Sorana again.

As I said in my last preview about Cirstea, there are two main things that make me believe she is going to play very well here in the US Open. She appears to be very motivated and focused in achieving some goals, always showing positive vibes and that is the way she has to take to comeback with a good end of season. In addition, she is used to play very well in the US Open, it is a tournament where she raises her level and she has more than talent to qualify to the main event. On the other hand, Donna Vekic is in the center of that "Kyrgios-Wawrinka novel" and her head is not on court when she plays. Even though she is full of talent, this season has been awful and since that episode she lost all matches, winning now the first round of this qualifying stage beating a weak opponent, in a match she could lost. The first round for both was a bit different, with Cirstea winning in straight sets and serving strongly, while Vekic was broken for seven times.

As these two girls are not in their best moments, I think the thing that will make the difference is the fact that Cirstea is focused on playing, on coming back to her true level, she is more experienced to deal with that, than a Vekic that has not her head in the game, a bit shamed of everything. Cirstea already beat Vekic this year and I think here in the US Open she has even more chances than she was in that match.

Pick: Sorana Cirstea @ 1.75 Pinnacle Sports (2/3)

Preview: Alejandro Gonzalez vs Marcos Giron - 26.08.15

US Open - Qualifying

Alejandro Gonzalez x Marcos Giron

26th of August of 2015

This preview will be the unique for today. This match will put face to face two very different players, Alejandro Gonzalez from Colombia, against Marcos Giron from the USA. When I said they are very different, I mean, Gonzalez is in the top100 line for a long time, he is a regular player, he knows his weapons and he is used to take the chances given to him. On the other side, and if I am not wrong, Marcos Giron was the last year's USA university tennis champion and played this Grand Slam with a wildcard, losing in the first round to John Isner in three sets.

Alejandro Gonzalez is a Colombian player who is still improving his game to consolidate his position in the top100. After Wimbledon he did not lose any match as favourite, even beating Tim Smyczek in the Canadian Masters. He is playing well in Grand Slams, particularly in the hard ones, as he reached second round in the Australian Open this year, beating Fabio Fognini, as well as last year he went to second round here in the US Open. About Marcos Giron, as I said he was playing the USA university circuit, going into professional last year, but his results do not show positive things. He still has not any good win, against a better player, and the pressure of achieving some good results in the university circuit may put more pressure on him than he would like to.

This match goes on the line with the two of yesterday, as I am picking a clearly favourite player. Gonzalez is one step forward than Giron, and his experience may take an important role during this match. The Colombian should be a bit better in every part of the game, even though Giron is playing at home. This second argument is the only reason Gonzalez is at 1.70, as if they were playing in other country, Gonzalez should be lower than 1.40 in my opinion.

Pick: Alejandro Gonzalez @ 1.70 Pinnacle Sports (1/3)

Preview: Sorana Cirstea vs Na Han - 25.08.15

US Open - Qualifying

Sorana Cirstea x Na Han

25th of August of 2015

Today starts the qualifying stage of US Open and I could not be far from the women's tournament. This match will put face to face Sorana Cirstea, from Romania, and Na Han, from South Korea. As the first preview for today, here you might know one player and do not know the other. Cirstea is a former top21 player, with a lot of talent, but since 2014 she is living a bad moment. If you see Cirstea's last runs in US Open, you will see she plays the main draw since 2008, when she was still a teenager. On the other side, Na Han is a typical player from South Korea who plays mainly in her country and never goes far from the asiatic tournaments. In fact, I think this is the first tournament of Han outside Asia and Australia.

One thing that made me look to this match in order to bet was the last posts Cirstea is doing on her social pages. She is practicing in New York for some good days, she is showing good vibes and that is what her game needs to be very dangerous, to top players! Even though she is outside top150, we are talking about a girl who last year beat here, in first round, Watson by 6-1 6-1 and almost beat Genie Bouchard (in good form!) in the second round. Although the bad results from the Romanian, I think she will have a good run here in US Open. Well, about Na Han, I have to confess I never watched this girl and I do not know how she plays, but according to her results, she can not be considered as very dangerous. She plays ITF tournaments in South Korea and China, never been in US Open or other main events, does not know what is it to be here and she has right from the beginning the hard task to face a player like Cirstea.

With all the stuff considered in my opinion, there is only a point that could give leverage to Han, the fact that she is left-handed, but Cirstea has a very good backhand and the Romanian has already good career wins against top left-handed players like Petra Kvitova and Angelique Kerber. I think Cirstea has to be in a really awful day just to give a chance to Han. There is a lot of new things to the South Korean, a lack of experience and talent, while in the other side of the net there is a super talented player with hungry to win.

Pick: Sorana Cirstea @ 1.31 Pinnacle Sports (1/3)

Preview: Dusan Lajovic x Brydan Klein - 25.08.15

US Open - Qualifying

Dusan Lajovic x Brydan Klein

25th of August of 2015

This match from the Qualifiers of US Open will put face to face Dusan Lajovic, from Serbia, and Brydan Klein, from Great Britain. I think with a little knowledge of tennis you might know Lajovic, a top100 player from the new generation of Serbian players, but Klein might be a bit unknown. In fact, while you may see Lajovic playing only ATP events and playing for Serbia in Davis Cup, Klein still plays some ITF Futures and has no space to play in Great Britain, who count on Andy Murray and James Ward all the time - even though, Klein would have some players to take a spot there like Dani Evans, Kyle Edmund and Liam Broady (those guys Andy Murray is used to support in Grand Slam qualifyings!).

As this is a qualifying match and I am not used to watch Klein playing, I will focus on other things that I do not when I am writing previews about matches between top players. Even though Dusan Lajovic plays much more in clay, he has powerful and heavy shots which allow him to have a good career record in hard courts (38-24, even with a 1-5 this year). He is used to play tight matches against top players, I can say he is from the top100 league and last year he lost here in the US Open to Janowicz, in the first round, in a match he could be the winner in the end. Brydan Klein, one year older than his opponent, is a player who never reach the top170. As I said, the fact of still playing ITF Futures can sum his talent, he is not a player with many weapons to surprise a good player and I do not remember to see Klein beating a player like Lajovic in hard courts (Klein beat Baghdatis in grass this year, but Britain players are used to get good results in home grass).

Given that, I expect a match controlled by Lajovic. I do not expect a big win from Lajovic - he does not need that - as the Serbian has a very good serve and can trust it to hold till the end of the set after getting a break. Klein will fight obviously as we are in a Grand Slam, but this is not his Grand Slam (as a Britain) and he is facing a much better player. Lajovic should qualify to the main event in my opinion and I think a not so hard win against Klein will give him confidence to get back in form in hard courts.

Pick: Dusan Lajovic @ 1.38 - Pinnacle Sports (1/3)

Presentation

Hello everyone,

This first post may explain who I am and how I work so, if in the end you still have some doubts, you should ask and I will kindly answer them.

I am a former ITF tournaments player and a really enthusiastic tennis fan. I am connected to this sport every day, playing, watching and reading. So I may be one of the rare cases that when it came to betting (for me in 2008), my first move was in tennis, and not in football. My first memory of betting is from the epic Wimbledon's final in 2008, when Nadal beat Federer in a thrilling match, considered the best one of ever by many fans.

A little introduction done and I will tell you now how I bet. I have two mainly, and different, let's call it "categories" of betting (always in tennis!). The first one and the most conventional, pre live: I study all tennis matches with some couple of hours in advance and then I am going to share them; and some  in play - "live": it is a kind of bet - always in the beginning of the deciding set, when the dog wins the first set and then the favourite player manages to comeback and take the match into a deciding set - I am doing for a while and results are good so far. In this second case, I am going to use alerts in my Facebook and Twitter pages (when the dog wins the first set and I am watching that match I will make a post, so that you will be waiting for more news to come and do not lose that bet).

I will also be a statistics abuser - I will post some screenshots from my excels with stats I consider very useful so you can track my progress and choose also what you prefer to follow. Do not forget I will always bet in ATP events, no Challenger and ITF tournaments. I will also try to publish a "week preview" every Sunday and a "week resume" every Monday to explain what I think it is going to happen and what happened. You will see my previews are based in players comparison, recent forms, match-ups, surfaces and stuff like weather, everything to bet knowing where we are putting our money. About the stakes, I think everyone should be able to define a staking management that deals with your bets and personality, but I will end my previews with the stake I bet on it - 1, 2 or 3 percent of my bankroll.

I do not want to do a very long first post, so if something is missing, just tell me.

Cheers!